市政公共部门雇用工人:2020年至2030年巴西市政人口需求预测

Elaine Cristina Gama dos Santos, Cristiane Silva Corrêa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考虑到人口结构变化和人口老龄化的背景,本文旨在估计巴西在2020年至2030年之间在教育、卫生和其他专业类别雇佣市政公共工作人员的需求(ND)。根据年度社会信息清单(RAIS, 2018)的数据,所使用的方法是巴西市政当局预测公务员的微观模拟模型。结果表明,东南和东北地区的专业类别的ND将增加,但教育类别的ND仍然为负,卫生类别的ND仍然为正。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Hiring of workers in the municipal public sector: A projection of the demographic need by brazilian municipality, 2020 to 2030
Given the context of demographic changes and population aging, this article aimed to estimate the need (ND) for hiring municipal public workers in Brazil, between 2020 and 2030, for the professional categories of Education, Health and Others. Based on data from the Annual Social Information List (RAIS, 2018), the methodology used was the microsimulation model for projecting civil servants by Brazilian municipality. The results suggest that the ND will increase for the set of professional categories and higher in the Southeast and Northeast regions, however, it remains negative for the Education category and positive for the Health category.
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