调整与塔利班的接触

IF 1.5 3区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Survival Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI:10.1080/00396338.2023.2261243

James M. Cowan

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Through discreet engagement, the West should try to nudge the current regime away from its unworldly posture towards a more pragmatic one.Key words: Afghanistanal-QaedaEuropean UnionHALO TrustIslamic State – Khorasan ProvinceTalibanTobias EllwoodUnited KingdomUnited NationsUnited States Notes1 See Arne Strand and Astrid Suhrke, ‘Quiet Engagement with the Taliban’, Survival, vol. 63, no. 5, October– November 2021, pp. 35–46.2 The Daily Mail has preserved the video for posterity. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要自美国于2021年从阿富汗撤军，塔利班迅速占领阿富汗以来，包括英国在内的西方国家政府一直不愿与基地组织和践踏人权的伊斯兰政权接触。然而，在塔利班统治下，暴力、腐败和毒品贩运似乎已大大减少。塔利班政权还建立了合理的安全水平，并打击了腐败。完全孤立该政权可能会带来不正常的安全以及人道主义后果。除非再次入侵和占领，否则一个世俗的、西方式的政府是不可能重新出现的。通过谨慎的接触，西方应该试图推动当前的政权从其不谙世事的姿态转向更务实的姿态。关键词:阿富汗-基地组织欧盟哈洛信托组织伊斯兰国-呼罗珊省塔利班托拜厄斯·埃尔伍德英国联合国美国注1见阿恩·斯特兰德和阿斯特丽德·苏尔克，《与塔利班的秘密接触》，《生存》第63期。《每日邮报》为后人保存了这段视频。见“保守党议员埃尔伍德欢呼塔利班对阿富汗的“改造””，《每日邮报》，2023年7月17日，https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-2981441/Video-Tory-MP-Ellwood-hails-transformation-Afghanistan-Taliban.html.3见，例如，托比·道奇，“阿富汗和自由主义和平建设的失败”，《生存》，第63卷，第63期。5, 2021年10月- 11月，第47-58页;劳雷尔·米勒，《拜登的阿富汗撤军:对美国权力极限的判断》，《生存》，第63卷，第6期。见劳雷尔·米勒，《保护美国在阿富汗的利益》，《生存》，第64卷，第37-44.4号。2, 2022年4 - 5月，第25-34页;格雷姆·史密斯和易卜拉欣·巴伊斯，《世界别无选择，只能与塔利班合作》，《外交事务》，2023年8月11日，https://www.foreignaffairs.com/afghanistan/world-has-no-choice-work-taliban.Additional信息关于投稿人的说明詹姆斯·m·考恩少将(已退役)詹姆斯·m·考恩是HALO信托基金的首席执行官，也是赫尔曼德省国际安全援助部队的前指挥官。本文的早期版本出现在2023年8月14日的生存编辑博客https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/survival-online/2023/08/should-the-uk-engage-with-the-taliban-government/上。

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Calibrating Engagement with the Taliban

AbstractSince the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban quickly took over the country, Western governments, including the United Kingdom, have been reluctant to engage with an Islamist regime that has hosted al-Qaeda and trampled on human rights. Under the Taliban, however, violence, corruption and narcotics traffic appear to have been dramatically reduced. The Taliban regime has also established a reasonable level of security and cracked down on corruption. Completely isolating the regime could have perverse security as well as humanitarian consequences. Short of another invasion and occupation, there is no prospect of a secular, Western-style government re-emerging. Through discreet engagement, the West should try to nudge the current regime away from its unworldly posture towards a more pragmatic one.Key words: Afghanistanal-QaedaEuropean UnionHALO TrustIslamic State – Khorasan ProvinceTalibanTobias EllwoodUnited KingdomUnited NationsUnited States Notes1 See Arne Strand and Astrid Suhrke, ‘Quiet Engagement with the Taliban’, Survival, vol. 63, no. 5, October– November 2021, pp. 35–46.2 The Daily Mail has preserved the video for posterity. See ‘Tory MP Ellwood Hails “Transformation” of Afghanistan by the Taliban’, Daily Mail, 17 July 2023, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-2981441/Video-Tory-MP-Ellwood-hails-transformation-Afghanistan-Taliban.html.3 See, for example, Toby Dodge, ‘Afghanistan and the Failure of Liberal Peacebuilding’, Survival, vol. 63, no. 5, October–November 2021, pp. 47–58; and Laurel Miller, ‘Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal: A Verdict on the Limits of American Power’, Survival, vol. 63, no. 3, June–July 2021, pp. 37–44.4 See Laurel Miller, ‘Protecting US Interests in Afghanistan’, Survival, vol. 64, no. 2, April–May 2022, pp. 25–34; and Graeme Smith and Ibraheem Bahiss, ‘The World Has No Choice But to Work with the Taliban’, Foreign Affairs, 11 August 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/afghanistan/world-has-no-choice-work-taliban.Additional informationNotes on contributorsJames M. CowanMajor General (Retd) James M. Cowan is CEO of the HALO Trust and the former commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Helmand province. An earlier version of this essay appeared on the Survival Editors’ Blog on 14 August 2023 at https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/survival-online/2023/08/should-the-uk-engage-with-the-taliban-government/.

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来源期刊

Survival Multiple-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

16.70%

发文量

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