{"title":"由于误用了正态分布概率论，ERCOT ORDC低估了LOLP","authors":"Richard Wakeland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3180714","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ERCOT’s LOLP is underestimated because it ignores the path reserve level might take over the course of an hour. Some paths reach a reserve level of zero but end up greater than zero. These paths are not included in the LOLP determination even though they would result in a loss of load event during the hour, resulting in an underestimation of LOLP by the methodology.","PeriodicalId":105811,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: Agriculture","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The ERCOT ORDC Under-Estimates the LOLP Because of a Misapplication of Normal Distribution Probability Theory\",\"authors\":\"Richard Wakeland\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3180714\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ERCOT’s LOLP is underestimated because it ignores the path reserve level might take over the course of an hour. Some paths reach a reserve level of zero but end up greater than zero. These paths are not included in the LOLP determination even though they would result in a loss of load event during the hour, resulting in an underestimation of LOLP by the methodology.\",\"PeriodicalId\":105811,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Econometric Modeling: Agriculture\",\"volume\":\"99 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-05-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Econometric Modeling: Agriculture\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3180714\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometric Modeling: Agriculture","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3180714","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The ERCOT ORDC Under-Estimates the LOLP Because of a Misapplication of Normal Distribution Probability Theory
ERCOT’s LOLP is underestimated because it ignores the path reserve level might take over the course of an hour. Some paths reach a reserve level of zero but end up greater than zero. These paths are not included in the LOLP determination even though they would result in a loss of load event during the hour, resulting in an underestimation of LOLP by the methodology.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
