项目网络相互依赖的投资组合风险管理(以农控股为例)

Anna Levina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文针对某农业公司网络项目相互依赖关系的项目组合风险管理问题,指出了现有项目组合风险评估方法的不足和缺乏对相互依赖关系的适当考虑。在研究过程中,我们对该公司的CFO进行了深入访谈,以确定该公司正在进行的项目池,确定项目间依赖关系的类型,项目中相应风险的可能性以及货币损失的水平。采用专家评估法和噪声或门工具,在GeNIe软件产品中进行计算,识别出高风险项目后,确定项目组合的整体风险,并根据公司使用的软件产品,对动态项目组合风险管理模型的应用提出建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Portfolio Risk Management of Project Network Interdependency (on the Example of Agroholding)
The article is devoted to the problem of portfolio risk management of network project interdependencies in an agricultural company, as the lack of existing methods of project portfolio risk assessment and proper consideration of interdependencies are traced. During the study, we conducted an in-depth interview with the CFO of the company to identify the pool of ongoing projects of the company, determine the types of interproject dependencies, the likelihood of the corresponding risk in the project and the level of losses in monetary terms. Using the method of expert assessments and the noisy-OR gate tool, calculations were made in the GeNIe software product to determine the overall risk of the project portfolio after identifying high-risk projects and then recommendations were given for the application of a dynamic portfolio risk management model based on the software product used in the company.
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