对乌克兰外汇市场的猜测

D. Bychenko
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摘要

外汇市场对经济发展具有重要的推动作用,是金融市场的重要组成部分之一。全球外汇市场(FOREX)的日成交额已超过67亿美元。与此同时,市场上的投机行为为其发展提供了质的推动力。当然,由于他们的无知,这可能会部分地破坏报价的稳定,但在大多数情况下,这对市场的总体状况也是有帮助的。现代经济学的奠基人凯恩斯对这些概念进行了研究,国外的科学家波耶利耶夫和列维奇也对这些概念进行了研究,乌克兰的科学家也没有绕开这个问题。他们更多地考虑了乌克兰外汇市场发展的特点及其管理的基本原则。此外,只有少数人考虑了对冲汇率风险的过程,以及部分投机行为。本文的主要目的是研究投机行为在乌克兰外汇市场中的作用,并评估其近年来对外汇市场发展的影响。我们已经实现了这个目标,即考虑过去三年外汇市场的主要趋势。从积极的方面来看,乌克兰已经不再维持汇率,乌克兰央行正试图积累一定的储备。由于疫情封锁的影响,外汇市场发展的积极动态并不容易追踪。市场上出现了乌克兰格里夫纳贬值的明显趋势。我们还将考虑交易者的类型和他们的主要策略。要特别注意谨慎交易和动量,因为这是外汇市场上最赚钱的。核心交易是基于投资者从不同货币的利率差异中获利的愿望,同时考虑到风险。现在已经是交易者根据技术分析决定投资的时候了。本文的研究对金融市场尤其是外汇市场的研究有一定的帮助。也许乌克兰的普通公民会考虑并扩大他们在货币对投资和交易领域的知识,因为类似的文章不会涉及乌克兰市场,这是这项工作的价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SPECULATIONS ON THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET OF UKRAINE
The foreign exchange market gives a great impetus to economic development and is one of the most critical parts of the financial market. The global daily turnover in the foreign exchange markets (FOREX) has exceeded USD 6.7 billion. At the same time, speculation in the markets gives a qualitative impetus to its development. Of course, it can partially destabilize the situation with quotations due to their ignorance, but in most cases, it is also helpful for the general state of the market. These concepts were studied by the founder of modern economics - J. Keynes, and foreign scientists M. Poyarliev and J. Levych, and Ukrainian scientists also did not bypass this issue. They considered more the peculiarities of the development of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine and the basics of its regulation. Furthermore, only a few considered the process of hedging currency risks and, in part, speculation. The primary purpose of this article is to study the role of speculation in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine and assess their impact on the foreign exchange market development in recent years. We have achieved this goal, namely to consider the main trends of the foreign exchange market in the last three years. On the positive side, Ukraine has already moved away from maintaining the exchange rate, and the NBU is trying to accumulate certain reserves. It is not easy to trace the positive dynamics in the foreign exchange market development due to the impact of pandemic-related lockdowns. There is a noticeable tendency in the market to devalue the Ukrainian hryvnia. We will also consider the types of traders and their main strategies. Pay special attention to care trade and momentum as the most profitable in the foreign exchange market. The core trade is based on the investor's desire to benefit from the difference in interest rates on different currencies, taking into account the risks. The moment is already based on technical analysis from the trader to decide to invest. This study will be helpful for both students and researchers studying financial markets, especially the foreign exchange market. Perhaps ordinary citizens of Ukraine will take it into account and expand their knowledge in the field of investment and trading in currency pairs because a similar article that would it did not concern the Ukrainian market, which is the value of this work.
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