基于双指数平滑法的服务营业额预测(以金龙分公司为例)

Riko Muhammad, M. Hamidah, B. M. Mulyo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着现代社会生活方式的发展,服务公司是以服务的形式出售专业技能的企业,以使客户更容易,其中之一是洗鞋服务。然而,通常出现的问题是服务请求的数量不确定,导致原材料有时会累积或每月用完,如果目标原材料不合适,洗鞋服务的销售营业额预测错误可能会导致业主遭受损失。本研究旨在利用双指数平滑法建立一个预测系统,预测公司每项服务销售的营业额,使每月所需的原材料需求量达到最优。在接下来的一个月(2022年5月),对Kinclong潜艇上的每项服务的最佳营业额预测结果为10.006,248卢比,深度清洁服务的MAPE值为17.86%。而unyellows的Rp为1493,374,mapvalue为17.18%。因此可以得出,下个月营业额最高的服务是DeepClean,预测结果可以让金龙子店主更容易从消费者最需要的服务中提供原材料。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forecasting Service Sales Turnover Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method (case Study: Kinclong Sub)
As the lifestyle of modern society develops, service companies are businesses in the form of services that sell specialskills in order to make it easier for customers, one of which is shoe washing services. However, the problem thatusually occurs is that the number of service requests is not certain which results in raw materials that sometimesaccumulate or run out every month, errors in predicting the sales turnover of shoe washing services can result inowners experiencing losses if the target raw materials are not appropriate.This study aims to create a forecasting system for the amount of turnover from each service sale by Kinclong Sub usingthe Double Exponential Smoothing method, so that the raw material needs needed every month can be optimal. Thebest turnover forecasting results for each service on Kinclong Sub for the following month, May 2022, were Rp.10.006,248 with a MAPE value of 17.86% for DeepClean services. And Unyellowing got Rp. 1493,374 with a MAPEvalue of 17.18 %. So it can be concluded that the service that has the most turnover for the next month is DeepClean,the forecasting results can make it easier for Kinchlong Sub shop owners to provide raw materials from services thatare most in demand by consumers.
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