基于证据推理的不确定性研发项目评价

2010 International Conference on Logistics Systems and Intelligent Management (ICLSIM) Pub Date : 2010-05-06 DOI:10.1109/ICLSIM.2010.5461038

Ying Yang, Bengong Yu, Lei Fu, Haojie Shen

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文提出了一个考虑研发项目全生命周期不确定性的项目评估模型。考虑了技术成熟度和竞争优势，建立了平衡计分卡(BSC)模型对研发项目进行评价。在多层次评价框架的基础上，提出了一种证据推理方法，对具有不确定性的数值数据和定性信息进行综合。期望效用用于描述决策者在决策过程中的偏好。最后以汽车研发项目为例说明了该方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Evaluation of R&D projects with uncertainty based on evidence reasoning

This paper presents an assessment model for research and development (R&D) projects considering uncertainty in their overall life cycle. Technology maturity and competitive advantages were considered and a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) model was developed to evaluate R&D projects. Based on the multilevel evaluation framework, an evidence reasoning approach has been developed to aggregate the numerical data and qualitative information with uncertainty. The expected utility is applied to describe preferences of decision-makers in the decision process. A case study in the context of automobile R&D projects is given to illustrate the methods.

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2010 International Conference on Logistics Systems and Intelligent Management (ICLSIM)

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