The Bioeconomy Transition Process: Sailing through Storms and Doldrums in Unknown Waters

A transition toward a sustainable circular bioeconomy requires drastic changes across a broad range of industries and their stakeholders. The current slow pace with which society tries to avert the transgression of critical thresholds of the planetary system is worrying. However, the historical case of the shipping industry in the 19th century shows how suddenly whole industries can change after a long period of low innovation activity and lock-in. We explore how this example might improve the understanding of the transition toward a sustainable circular bioeconomy. For this purpose, we analyze analogies between the processes in the past and the ones we observe today. Our conclusion is that the evolutionary processes shaping the path toward the bioeconomy naturally make use of the knowledge and networks of the fossil era and are characterized by co-existence, mutual learning, and new forms of collaboration.JEL Codes: O12, O14, O32, O33