基于云模型的环境与经济协调发展动态耦合分析——以河南省为例

Xinjin Li, Jianhua Tao
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引用次数: 2

摘要

环境与经济系统的耦合是一个动态的过程,充满了不确定性。这就是为什么很难预测它最终会呈现出什么样的结构。因此,本文以协同理论的序参量为基础,借鉴系统演化的思想,构建了经济与环境协调发展的动态耦合模型。由于协调发展是一个内涵明确但外延模糊的概念,为了避免以价值为标准做出不合理的判断,本文借用云模型对经济与环境协调发展的动态耦合进行评价(下文简称DCCDEE)。研究表明,1990 - 2012年,河南省环境与经济系统发展经历了一个从低级协调、共生到相互胁迫的螺旋式发展过程,进入了目前的中等协调发展状态。河南DCCDEE讨论了环境与经济的矛盾仍然存在,但经济措施和环境政策等外部条件的调整和干扰可以影响经济与环境的演化速度以及它们之间的关系,从而帮助环境和经济系统向有序的方向演化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The dynamic coupling analysis for coordinated development of the environment and economy based on cloud model: Case study of Henan
The coupling between the environment and economic system is a dynamic process, and it is full of uncertainty. That is why it is difficult to predict what kind of structure it assumes at the end. Therefore, this paper constructs the dynamic coupling model of the coordinated development of economy and environment, based on order parameter of synergetic theory and borrowing the idea of system evolution. Because coordinated development is a concept that its connotation is clear but denotation is ambiguous, in order to avoid the irrational judgment made by using the value as the standard, this paper borrow cloud model to assess the dynamic coupling of the coordinated development of economy and environment (Here in after referred to as DCCDEE). The research indicated that from 1990 to 2012 the development of Henan's environmental and economic systems undergone a process of spiraling, ranging from low-grade coordination , symbiosis to mutual stress and entered a state of moderately coordinated development at present. DCCDEE in Henan discussed that the contradiction between environment and economy still existed, but the adjustment and interference of the external conditions such as economic measures and environmental policies can affect the evolutional speed of the economic and environment as well as the relationship between them, thus helping environmental and economic systems evolve in an orderly direction.
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