影响埃塞俄比亚妇女期望子女数目的因素:计数回归模型的应用。

Habitu Liyew Molla, E. K. Muluneh
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引用次数: 3

摘要

背景:期望家庭规模,即一个人一生中想要的子女数量,是影响人口动态的主要因素之一。了解影响理想家庭规模的因素对调节人口增长至关重要。本研究评估了埃塞俄比亚妇女期望的家庭规模及其决定因素。方法:研究基于2016年埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查(EDHS)数据。共有13941名信息完整的女性参与了这项研究。计数回归模型是一组广义线性模型,用于确定埃塞俄比亚妇女期望生育子女数量的决定因素。结果:结果显示,每个妇女平均生育子女数为4.5个。平均得分最高的是索马里地区(10.58分),最低的是亚的斯亚贝巴市(3.56分)。随机截距负二项回归模型是最合适的数据模型。妇女的年龄、户主、避孕措施的使用、财富指数、妇女的教育程度、宗教、婚姻状况、丈夫的工作、家庭规模和初婚年龄与育龄妇女期望生育的子女数量显著相关。该研究还表明,埃塞俄比亚妇女希望生育的孩子数量存在显著的地区差异。结论:妇女年龄、家庭规模等变量与育龄妇女期望生育数呈正相关,而初婚年龄、避孕药具使用情况、财富指数、妇女受教育程度等变量与妇女期望生育数呈负相关。与没有受过正规教育的妇女相比,受过高等教育的妇女更喜欢小家庭。农村地区的母亲、经济最贫困的妇女和没有工作的妇女对孩子的愿望很高。关键词:期望数,统计权值,EDHS,计数回归模型,多水平分析
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Factors influencing desired number of children among Ethiopian women: Application of count regression models.
Background: Desired family size, the number of children wanted in one’s lifetime, is one of the major factors influencing the population dynamics. Knowledge of factors influencing the desired family size is crucial in regulating the population growth. This study assesses the desired family size and its determinants among Ethiopian women. Methods: The study was based on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. A total of 13,941 women with complete information were considered in the study. Count regression models, a family of generalized linear models, were used to identify determinant factors for the desired number of children among women in Ethiopia. Results: Results showed that the average number of children per women was 4.5. The highest average was recorded in Somali region (10.58) and the lowest in Addis Ababa city administration (3.56). The random intercept negative binomial regression model was found to be the most appropriate model for the data. Women’s age, household head, contraception using, wealth index, women’s education, religion, marital status, husband’s work, family size and age at first marriage were significantly associated with the desired number of children by women at reproductive age. The study also showed that there was significant regional variation in desired number of children among Ethiopian women. Conclusions: Variables such as women’s age and family size were positively associated with the desired number of children by women at reproductive age while age at first marriage, contraception using, wealth index and women’s education were negatively associated with the desired number of children by women. Women who attained higher level of education preferred small family size compared to women with no formal education. Desire for children was high among mothers from rural areas, women in the poorest economic level and woman having no work. Keywords: Desired number of children, statistical weight, EDHS, Count regression models, multilevel analysis.
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