A Two-Stage Model for Rice Cultivation Preparation Considering Dynamic Uncertainty: A Case Study in Iran

Abstrac As one of the essential commodities in the agricultural sector, rural farmers generally cultivate rice based on experience in agricultural fields. This method of cultivation has led to a waste of natural resources. In this study, the aim is to find suitable areas and determine the pattern of rice cultivation using a two-phase methodology. In the first phase, GIS integration and the best-worst method have been used to classify suitable areas for rice cultivation in Iran. The first phase's result is considered an input to the second phase, i.e., the optimization model to determine the pattern of rice cultivation. A multi-stage stochastic optimization approach has been used in the second phase to consider the weather uncertainty in all periods. Climatic conditions in each period are modeled in three scenarios. The application of the proposed model has been investigated in a case study in Iran. As a result, it has been observed that most of the suitable areas for rice cultivation are located in the north and western parts of Iran. Also, the suitable cultivation pattern for most rice farmers is the high-yield cultivation using the transplanting method.