The future of the tourist submarine industry

submersibles will suffer the accidents that befall such operations eventually. Unlike other kinds of transportation, an accident with loss of life could totally discourage the market. The future of tourist submersibles vi11 likely be strongly affected by the position and cohesiveness of the industry when an accident occurs. An outline is presented of a predictive approach that utilizes three separate but similar models from the literature. They are a technology assessment, an industry competition analysis, and a behavioral stimulusresponse model of one particarly important regulatory agency, the U . S . Coast Guard. The models are used as overlays on a complex picture to help identify significant features and their interactions. The most apparent scenarios for the future of the tourist submersible industry are described. Because they are becoming mass transport vehicles for recreation, tourist