Maha Khanniba, Soufiane Bouyghrissi, Mohamed Lahmouchi
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引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究考察了摩洛哥可再生能源发电、二氧化碳排放和经济增长之间的因果关系。为此,本研究对1990 - 2015年的时间序列数据采用了Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)绑定检验方法和Toda Yamamoto因果关系检验。协整检验的结果显示变量之间存在短期和长期均衡。此外,在短期内,二氧化碳排放、可再生能源发电和活跃人口对GDP产生负面影响。固定资本形成总额对经济增长也有最多一年的负面影响,但在两年后变为正影响。从长期来看,GDP主要是由二氧化碳排放、劳动力和可再生能源发电造成的。这些结果支持了增长假说。GFCF并不直接影响摩洛哥的经济增长,而是间接通过电力生产来解释GDP的动态。
Renewable electricity production, economic growth and CO2 emissions: The Moroccan experience
This study examines the causal links between electricity production from renewable sources, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Morocco. In this regard, the study used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach and Toda Yamamoto causality test over time series data from the period 1990 to 2015. The results of the co-integration test reveal the existence of a short-and long-term equilibrium between the variables. Furthermore, in the short term, CO2 emissions, electricity production from renewable sources and the active population have a negative impact on GDP. Gross fixed capital formation also has a negative impact on economic growth for up to one year but becomes positive after two years.. In the long term, GDP is mainly caused by CO2 emissions, the labor force, and the production of electricity from renewable sources. These results support the growth hypothesis. GFCF does not directly influence economic growth in Morocco, but indirectly through electricity production to explain the dynamics of GDP.