Total probable risk analysis a technique for quantitative risk evaluation of hazardous waste disposal options

ABSTRACT This paper presents an approach for quantifying, in monetary terms, the risks and potential liabilities associated with hazardous waste disposal options. An event tree analysis is used. Various causative events that could occur in the short and long term and their resultant consequences are identified. The probabilities, times of occurrence, and the financial implications of these events and their consequences are estimated. The TPR (Total Probable Risk) of a disposal option is then calculated and added to its present value cost, and the total risk-inclusive cost is used for the comparison of options. Because of the uncertainties involved in the management of hazardous wastes, it is imperative that comprehensive risk and liability evaluation be an integral part of the decision-making process for selection of hazardous waste disposal options. The risks associated with these options can often be intuitively assessed in a qualitative sense. Therefore, risk analysis techniques that produce only quali...