Analysis of demonstrable index and test method of prognostic capability

Aiming at fault detection rate (FDR) and fault isolation rate (FIR), testability demonstration technology is relatively mature. As an extension of testability technology, PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) provides a more sophisticated form to quantify and predict equipment health state and remaining useful life (RUL). Therefore, many researches attach importance to the prognostic validation and verification technology during the past two decades. However, there are fewer studies made in test plan and universal test method of prognostic demonstration test. From the point of statistical view, this paper analyzes the outputs of prognostics and researches on the characteristics of prognostic sample population and sample feature. This paper proposes the standardized description form of prognostics output and build a demonstrable index of prognostic capability. At last, this paper proposes the test methods of prognostic demonstration based on accelerated degradation test and depicts the test plan parameters.