二元决策中人类认知偏差的改善

Baocheng Geng, P. Varshney, M. Rangaswamy
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引用次数: 8

摘要

我们在二元假设检验框架下研究认知偏差的人在决策中的行为。人类的理性通过前景理论建模,该理论利用价值函数和权重函数来表征人类对成本和概率的扭曲感知。根据心理学研究表明,人类通过选择产生最小预期成本的替代方案来做出决策,我们表明认知偏见的人在前景理论假设检验框架中使用了似然比检验(LRT)。我们进一步提出了三种方法来改善认知偏差的副作用,帮助人类做出更高质量的决策。通过仿真验证了理论结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Amelioration Of Human Cognitive Biases In Binary Decision Making
We study the behavior of cognitively biased humans in decision making under the binary hypothesis testing framework. Rationality of humans is modeled via prospect theory, which utilizes a value function and a weight function to characterize humans’ distorted perception of costs and probabilities. Following psychology studies which suggest that humans make decisions by choosing an alternative that yields the minimum expected costs based on received evidence, we show that a cognitively biased human employs an likelihood ratio test (LRT) in the prospect theoretic hypothesis testing framework. We further propose three approaches to ameliorate the side effects of cognitive biases and help humans make higher quality decisions. Simulations are presented to corroborate the theoretical results.
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