A Hybrid Method to Analyze and Manage Tourist Arrivals

This paper presents the development of a hybrid methodology to analyze and manage tourist arrivals for identifying the potential of a tourism destination and apperceiving the weaknesses to overcome. The developed Tourist Analysis Management (TAM) methodology integrates safety stock analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis, AHP (analytical hierarchy process), and ABC analysis to enable a decision maker in determining the tourism carrying capacity of a destination; predicting the number of tourist arrivals; performing strategic planning; and determining optimal strategy plan for tourist arrival management. The developed methodology can be implemented for increasing tourist arrivals in any city. The paper shows its implementation for Agra city, a famous tourist destination of India, in particular. On the basis of historical tourist data, tourism carrying capacity of Agra is determined. Next the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats are identified and are prioritized to formulate strategies. These were then categorized as Vital-Essential-Desirable strategies. The highly rated strategies in context of Agra are improving the reputation of the destination; collecting regular and high quality statistics; ensuring cooperation and coordination among the tourism and other hospitality industries.