核废料贮存定量成本与进度风险分析

Environment & Natural Resources eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-10 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3303410

Alexander Budzier, B. Flyvbjerg, A. Garavaglia, Andreas Leed

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本研究对核废料储存项目的成本和进度风险提供了一个独立的、由外而内的评估。根据过去216个可比较项目的参考分类，发现成本超支的风险为202%或更低，有80%的确定性，即超支超过202%的风险为20%。基于过去200个可比较项目的参考类，发现进度超支的风险为104%或更少，具有80%的确定性，即，超过104%的超支风险为20%。成本风险和进度风险都是核废料贮存项目的主要风险。

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Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects.

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Environment & Natural Resources eJournal

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