The performance evaluation of dam management by using Granger causal analysis

This paper attempted to find implications for water resource management and water quality improvement by analyzing the causal relationship among discharge, water temperature and pollution index, which were expected to have a great effect on water quality with the rise of water temperature and precipitation change as the warming effect in recent years. For this purpose, the unit root test, cointegration test, and Granger causal test were carried out for 10 multi-purpose dams in Korean major water systems using time series data on discharge, water temperature, BOD, COD and DO. It was analyzed that the fluctuation of water temperature affected the pollution index more than the fluctuation of discharge volume. Also, Hapcheon dam and Chungju dam were the best water quality management dams based on the high causal relationship between water quality and discharge. The second rank was Daecheong dam. The third-ranking group were Yongdam and Andong dam, whose causal relationships between water quality and discharge were low. The last group were the remaining five dams.