改进地震预报的创新数学模型

S. Kannan
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引用次数: 2

摘要

基于空间联系理论和逆泊松分布的地震预报创新数学模型(IMMEP)是前人提出的。利用美国国家地震信息中心(NEIC)的数据,在Google Earth程序中使用KML编程语言构建了全球6个断裂带的空间连接模型:加利福尼亚、美国中部、美国东北部、夏威夷、土耳其和日本。计算泊松距离标识符(Pri)值,并对Pri值应用泊松分布得到距离因子。利用逆泊松分布进行地震预报。为完善创新的地震预测数学模型,利用泊松分布和指数分布对加利福尼亚断裂带地震数据进行了进一步分析。泊松分布和指数分布的预测接近于验证空间联系理论,通过利用技术进步和提高未来地震预测的概率,为地球科学提供了有效的贡献。利用这项研究的结果,世界各地的灾害管理机构可以将他们的资源分配到适当的地点,以帮助人们撤离和拯救生命。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Improving Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction
The Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction (IMMEP) based on Spatial Connection Theory and reverse Poisson’s distribution was developed previously. Using data from National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), Spatial Connection Models were constructed using KML programming language in Google Earth program for six fault zones around the world: California, Central USA, Northeast USA, Hawaii, Turkey, and Japan. The Poisson Range Identifier (Pri) values were computed, and the Poisson’s Distribution was applied to the Pri values to arrive at a distance factor. Based on the reverse Poisson’s Distribution, earthquake predictions were carried out. To improve the Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction, further analysis was carried out on California fault zone earthquake data, utilizing Poisson’s and Exponential Distributions. The predictions of the Poisson’s and Exponential Distribution were nearby validating the Spatial Connection Theory By using technological advances and improving the probability of future earthquake predictions, this research provides an effective contribution to earth science. Utilizing the results of this research, disaster management agencies around the world can allocate their resources in appropriate locations to assist people during evacuation and save lives.
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