Cuba's Integration into the Global Economy — How Much is Cuba Expected to Change; How Far is Cuba Willing to Go; and Will the EU Serve as the Mediator of Those Changes?

The essay considers the question: what internal Cuban legal adjustments will be necessary for Cuba to enter into a fully normalized relationship with the U.S. and the rest of the world? That raises three distinct questions made necessary by the profound changes that have occurred between the time U.S. Cuban normalization reached its high point in early 2016, and the changes in the world situation starting with the U.S. 2016 elections and its aftermath. The first question, examined in Part II, centers on consideration of the adjustments Cuba might have to undertake if it is to embed itself within the structures of global trade and finance. To that end, the chapter analyzes the legal changes Cuba would need to undertake to join international financial institutions and global and regional trade organizations. The second question, considered in Part III, examines the extent to which Cuba is disposed to consider these possible reforms. Against the objective of socializing Cuban legal and economic practices with global norms, the chapter will critically assess the extent to which the current Cuban socio-political framework can produce these modifications and the consequences for such limitations, including with respect to the limits of political reform and the relevance of human rights norms in the construction of economic legal and governance structures. The third question, considered in Part IV, then examines what may be possible in the aftermath of the U.S. Presidential election of 2016 (and its aftermath) and other global changes, including the emergence of a Chinese alternative to national embedding in global trade. These have considerably changed the terrain within with the consequences of U.S. - Cuba normalization can be considered. The examination considers the value of the European Union’s strategic initiative, the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (PDCA) as a viable basis for Cuban reintegration in the global economy.