深入研究石油和天然气行业的颠覆性技术

David Wishnow, Hosseini Azar, Maziar Pashaei Rad
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引用次数: 7

摘要

我们对50家勘探开发公司进行了研究,以确定在未来三到五年内有可能颠覆油气行业的新兴技术。这些技术的例子包括:航空数据收集和解释,人工智能(包括机器和深度学习),生物科学(包括DNA测序CRISPR编辑),区块链,微流体,数字双胞胎2.0。、纳米技术、自然语言处理、量子计算和3D打印。这项研究的范围将包括识别这些颠覆性技术、这些技术的现场战术应用和用例、50家运营商投票选出的这些技术的潜在影响,以及首选技术蓬勃发展所需的条件。在本文中,我们不会对单个技术进行最深入的审查,但我们将提供新兴技术及其对行业影响程度的组合视图。对于每年投资数百万美元升级设备和基础设施的勘探开发公司来说,对未来技术颠覆的预见至关重要。如果没有这种远见,他们的大部分投资可能很快就会过时。我们的方法包括与50家石油公司的主题专家进行深入访谈,以收集他们的兴趣和需求数据库。然后,我们调查了150多家技术创新者和初创公司,以确定能够满足运营商特定需求的颠覆性解决方案。最后,在为期一天的研讨会上,我们将最受欢迎的技术与运营商进行了接触,并讨论了这些技术的影响。我们回顾了20种具有颠覆性潜力的技术趋势,发现其中5种技术趋势吸引了80%的运营商,并被视为颠覆性的主要领域。我们还发现,其中一些技术主题更基本,是更广泛的颠覆发生的推动者,而其中一些则是次要的或重要的。到目前为止,所有可能对油气行业产生影响的前沿技术研究都是学术界和/或工业界逐一研究的。本文首次收集了资源持有者自己对这些技术重要性的统计上有效的解释,并对新兴技术采取了投资组合的观点,而不是筒仓的观点,这使得很难确定资源和技术路线图的优先级。这将使油气行业的所有利益相关者受益,包括运营商、创新者、投资者和资源持有者。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Deep Dive into Disruptive Technologies in the Oil and Gas Industry
We have conducted research with 50 E&P companies to identify the emerging technologies that would have the potential to disrupt oil and gas industry in the next three to five years. Examples of these technologies include: Aerial Data Gathering & Interpretations, Artificial Intelligence including Machine & Deep Learning, Biosciences including DNA Sequencing CRISPR Editing, Blockchain, Micro fluidics, Digital Twin 2.0., Nanotechnology, Natural Language Processing, Quantum Computing, and 3D Printing. The scope of this research will include identification of those disrupting technologies, field level tactical applications of those technologies and use cases, the potential impact of those technologies voted by the 50 operators, and required conditions for top selected technologies to flourish. In this paper we will not review an individual technology to utmost technical depth but we will provide a portfolio view of emerging technologies and their level of impact on the industry. The foresight into the future technological disruptions is critical for the E&P companies who are investing millions of dollars each year in upgrading their equipment and infrastructure. Without this foresight, much of their investments could rapidly become obsolete. Our approach involved deep interviews with subject matter experts within 50 oil companies to collect a database of interests and needs by them. Then we investigated more than 150 technology innovators and startups to identify disruptive solutions that could match those particular needs of the operators. Finally, we brought the top selected technologies in touch with the operators in a one full day workshop to high-grade and discuss the implications. We have reviewed 20 technology trends that have the potential to be disruptive and found out that 5 of these technology trends attracted and were viewed as top areas for disruption by 80% of the operators. We also found out that a few of these technology themes are more fundamental and the enablers for the broader set of disruptions to happen, while a number of them are more secondary or consequential. Up to this date all research on frontier technologies that could have an impact on oil and gas industry have been studied academically and/or by industry on a one by one basis. This paper for the first time collects a statistically valid interpretation on the importance of these technologies by the resource holders themselves and takes a portfolio view on emerging technologies versus the silo view that makes it difficult to prioritize resources and technology roadmaps. This will benefit all stakeholders of the oil and gas industry ranging from operators, innovators, investors, and to the resource holder nations in large.
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