完善机动车运输质量分析中的道路安全指标体系

O. Mayboroda, Moscow Automobile, B. Sarymsakov
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摘要

本文介绍了道路安全综合指标——道路安全系数的发展结果。道路安全系数的值表明,在相同的机动化水平下,居民在道路交通中死亡的风险(社会风险)与上世纪40年代世界上存在的平均社会风险相比降低/增加了多少倍,当时没有改善道路安全的特别方案。道路安全系数的使用使您能够比较具有不同人口和不同机动化水平的国家和地区的道路安全水平。结果表明,社会风险是一个复杂的指标,其值取决于较低层次的道路安全指标——居民参与道路交通的概率,这等于机动化的值、道路使用者死亡的概率(运输风险)、道路事故的概率(主动道路安全)、道路事故的强度(驾驶可靠性)和汽车的平均年行驶里程。道路交通事故中死亡的概率(被动和事故后安全)。得到社会风险值与下层道路安全指标值之间的关系式。对吉尔吉斯斯坦的道路安全水平进行了分析。展示了交通流的状况如何影响其平均速度和道路事故的概率。考虑了交通流密度对交通流平均速度和交通事故强度的影响。为了评估交通流状况对其平均速度和道路安全的影响,使用了交通流常规密度的概念。结果表明,在吉尔吉斯斯坦的道路条件下,存在一个临界常规密度,当超过该密度时,交通事故的概率和交通事故的死亡概率随着常规密度的进一步增加而开始迅速下降。在某些点测量汽车的最大速度时,检测超过允许速度的效率很低。建议采用测量某些路段的平均车速的方法,以减少超速驾驶的人数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Improving the system of road safety indicators in the analysis of the quality of motor vehicle transportation
The article presents the results of the development of an integral indicator of road safety - the road safety coefficient. The value of the road safety coefficient shows how many times, at the same levels of motorization, the risk of death of a resident in road traffic (social risk) decreased/increased in comparison with the average social risk that existed in the world in the 40s of the last century, when there were no special programs on improving road safety. The use of the road safety coefficient allows you to compare the level of road safety in countries and regions with different populations and different levels of motorization. It is shown that social risk is a complex indicator, the value of which depends on the indicators of road safety at a lower level - the probability of participation of a resident in road traffic, which is equal to the value of motorization, the probability of death of a road user (transport risk), the probability of a road accident (active road safety), the intensity of road accidents (reliability of driving) and the average annual mileage of the car, the probability of death in a road accident (passive and post-accident safety). An equation is obtained that relates the value of social risk to the values of lower-level road safety indicators. The analysis of the level of road safety in Kyrgyzstan is carried out. It is shown how the condition of the traffic flow affects its average speed and the probability of road accidents. The influence of traffic flow density on its average speed and intensity of road accidents is considered. To assess the impact of the condition of a traffic flow on its average speed and road safety, the concept of the conventional density of a traffic flow is used. It is revealed that in the road conditions of Kyrgyzstan there is a critical conventional density, when exceeding it the transport risk, the probability of a road accident and the probability of death in a road accident begin to decrease rapidly with a further increase in the conventional density. The low efficiency of detection of exceeding a permitted speed when measuring the maximum speed of cars at certain points is shown. It is proposed to use the measurement of average speed on certain road sections as a means of reducing the number of drivers exceeding the speed limit.
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