保加利亚两个山区冬季降水和气温变化的分析

Dimitar Nikolov, C. Dimitrov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

积雪是气候波动的一个指标,是冬季降水和气温变化的结果。我们之前的研究表明,维托沙山高海拔地区的积雪明显减少。目前的研究重点是冬季降水的种类和数量以及气温的季节变化这两个气象变量。本调查使用了维托沙和斯塔拉普兰纳6个气象站的降水量、不同类型降水日数和平均气温的月值和季节值。主要调查时段为1960 ~ 2021年,测站海拔高度为1000 ~ 2376 m。为了评估1961- 1990年和1991-2020年两个主要气候期的长期资料序列的变率和可能的差异,进行了统计分析。所有台站的降水量都有显著的减少趋势。季节平均气温也有上升趋势,但只有在90年代初有明显上升趋势的最高地区才有明显的上升趋势。降雪日数也呈现下降趋势,与总降水量趋势一致。最近降雨日数增加的现象只出现在斯塔拉普兰纳的高海拔地区。这项调查是调查奥地利和保加利亚山区积雪和冬季降水当前变化的共同项目的一部分,由保加利亚国家科学基金和奥地利教育和国际化机构在两国科技合作双边计划的呼吁下资助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ANALYSIS OF THE VARIABILITY OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN TWO MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF BULGARIA
Snow cover is an indicator of the fluctuating climate, resulting from the change in the regime of winter precipitations and air temperatures. Our previous study has revealed significant decreasing of the snow cover in the high altitudes of Vitosha mountain. The current sturdy is now focused on these two meteorological variable � the type and amount of the winter precipitations and the seasonal change of the air temperature. Monthly and seasonal values of precipitation amounts, number of days with different type of precipitation and mean air temperature from 6 meteorological stations in Vitosha and Stara planina have been used in this survey. The main period of investigation is 1960-2021 and the stations altitudes range from 1000 up to 2376 m. Statistical analysis is performed in order to assess the variability and possible differences in the investigated characteristics from long-term data series for two main climatological periods 1961-90 and 1991-2020. Statistically significant decreasing tendencies in the precipitation amounts have been discovered for all stations. Increasing trend of the mean seasonal air temperature is also observed, however manifestly only for the highest regions where remarkable rising tendency could be determined in the beginning of the 1990-es. Number of days with snowfalls also shows declining behavior in agreement with the general precipitation amount tendency. Recently increasing days with rain could be find out only in the high altitude regions of Stara planina. This investigation is part of a common project for investigation of the current variability of the snow cover and winter precipitations in the mountain regions of Austria and Bulgaria and is funded by the Bulgarian National Science Fund and the Austria's Agency for Education and Internationalisation in the call of the bilateral program Scientific and Technological Cooperation between both countries.
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