铁路轨道全寿命周期成本的不确定性

A. P. Patra, P. Soderholm, U. Kumar
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引用次数: 1

摘要

将全寿命周期成本(LCC)作为铁路轨道基础设施维护的一种具有成本效益的决策支持。然而,与LCC估计相关的相当程度的不确定性是由于可靠性、可用性和可维护性(RAM)参数的统计特征。本文将实验设计(DoE)和蒙特卡罗模拟相结合,阐述了一种与LCC相关的不确定性估计方法。本文还包括已开发的轨道维护成本模型和Banverket(瑞典国家铁路局)的案例研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Uncertainty in Life Cycle Cost of railway track
Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is used as a cost effective decision support for maintenance of railway track infrastructure. However, a fair degree of uncertainty associated with the estimation of LCC is due to the statistical characteristics of Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) parameters. This paper illustrates a methodology for estimation of uncertainty linked with LCC, by a combination of Design of Experiment (DoE) and Monte Carlo simulation. The paper also includes developed maintenance cost models for track and a case study of Banverket (Swedish National Rail Administration).
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