关税同盟成员比自由贸易协定成员参与更多的双边贸易吗?

Jayjit Roy
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引用次数: 47

摘要

本文提供了第一个直接比较关税同盟(cu)和自由贸易协定(FTAs)对成员国双边贸易的影响的实证分析,同时解决了重力模型的对数线性化和关键时不变不可观测值引起的偏差。由于Fiorentino等人(2007)质疑自由贸易协定相对于自由贸易协定的受欢迎程度,认为后者在当前的贸易环境中更为实用,因此这种比较似乎特别相关。虽然Baier和Bergstrand(2007)发现自由贸易协定在10年后使成员国的双边贸易增加了大约一倍,但本文的结果发现自由贸易协定的影响要比自由贸易协定大得多。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Do Customs Union Members Engage in More Bilateral Trade than Free-Trade Agreement Members?
This paper provides the first empirical analysis directly comparing the effects of customs unions (CUs) and free-trade agreements (FTAs) on members’ bilateral trade, while addressing the biases arising from log-linearization of the gravity model and crucial time-invariant unobservables. Since Fiorentino et al. (2007) question the popularity of CUs relative to FTAs, considering the latter to be more practical in the current trading climate, such a comparison seems especially relevant. While Baier and Bergstrand (2007) find an FTA to approximately double members’ bilateral trade after 10 years, the results of this paper find CUs to have had a much larger impact than FTAs.
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