A Political Economy Approach to U.S. Normalization Policy Toward Cuba

In this chapter, five contributions are made to advance understanding of U.S.-Cuba relations. First, empirical evidence is provided on outcomes with respect to the flows of persons, goods and services, and capital between Cuba and the United States. While the evidence stresses the last decade, it goes back to the 1990s when feasible and relevant. Second, policies and their implementation by both the U.S. and Cuban governments are viewed as the actions of political agents that provide opportunities and challenges for these outcomes to fluctuate over time in pursuit of a variety of goals. Third, these outcomes are treated as responses of U.S. and Cuban entities and residents as economic agents to the policies and their implementations by the two governments. Fourth, throughout the chapter, interactions between different policies within each country as well as between the two countries are analyzed in terms of their impact on actual outcomes. Finally, in the last substantive section the role of political factors in the two recent U.S. administrations is highlighted to bring out interactions between political and economic dimensions and to illustrate the policies explicitly or implicitly adopted by the Donald Trump administration.