A risk-based approach to solving the problem of airline schedule operational management

The paper discusses the problem of optimal regulation of aircraft assignments for airline flights. Due to the fact that the activities of the airline are subject to changes caused by both external and internal environment, the planned schedule needs continuous management and control. In the event when the actual flight schedule deviates from the planned one, it is necessary to promptly make a decision on adjusting (restoring) the schedule and reassigning aircraft. Operational schedule management involves making adjustments to the current schedule from a depth of several hours to several days. The solution to the problem is to determine the unambiguous correspondence of flights and specific aircraft subject to maximizing the likelihood of meeting production targets and observing a number of restrictions. The task of managing airline schedules belongs to the class of scheduling optimization problems for parallel-sequential systems studied within the scheduling theory. It is NP-hard and requires the development of computationally efficient solution algorithms. However, the issue of choosing criteria for the optimization problem deserves special attention, since the correct choice plays an essential role in terms of assessing the effectiveness of decision-making. In the theory of decision-making, no general method for choosing the optimality criteria has been found. The definition of the target criterion depends on the expectations of the production. Within the framework of this paper, an original criterion is proposed for constructing an optimal solution to the discrete problem of managing aircraft assignments, the main idea of which is to find a balance between the duration of the schedule and the number of flights with a negative deviation from the planned schedule by assessing the level of punctuality violation risk. The paper gives a detailed concept of punctuality, describes an approach to assessing the level of risk, and also proposes an original formal formulation of the task of operational management of aircraft assignments based on the criterion of minimizing the risk of violation of flight punctuality.