新冠肺炎疫情对外国直接投资的影响——世界视角

T. Napiórkowski
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摘要

目的-外国直接投资(FDI)一直被认为是全球化的一个强有力的因素,主要不受金融和经济威胁的影响。然而,2019年底将国际直接投资者引入了COVID-19,这是一个未知的风险因素。本研究的目的是采取整体视角,并检验关于COVID-19对全球范围内相对FDI流入活动的负面影响的研究假设。研究方法-采用一系列基于文献的决定因素(包括总体自变量)对FDI进行建模,这可以同时克服过多FDI决定因素和模型规格不足的问题。对两个模型(n = 152和n = 141)进行了一系列检验,以确保其计量经济学有效性。结果-结果表明,与COVID-19相关的病例数和死亡人数对世界范围内的相对外国直接投资没有影响。原创性/价值/影响/建议-与大多数研究不同,本研究从全球/整体角度考察外国直接投资东道国的相对吸引力,这提供了额外的分析背景。在决定外国直接投资活动方面,市场规模、获得合格劳动力的机会和治理质量等决定因素比与COVID-19相关的风险更重要。政策制定者应把重点放在经济增长、获得合格劳动力和政治稳定上。因此,封锁政策不是最佳解决方案。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Foreign Direct Investment – The World Perspective
Purpose – Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been considered a robust element of globalization that was chiefly immune to financial and economic threats. However, late 2019 introduced international direct investors to COVID-19, a yet unknown risk factor. The aim of this study is to take a holistic perspective and test a research hypothesis of a negative impact of COVID-19 on relative inward FDI activity on the global scale.Research method – FDI is modelled with a series of literature-based determinants including aggregate independent variables that allowed to overcome the issue of too many FDI determinants and model underspecification simultaneously. A series of tests is run on two models (n = 152 and n = 141) to assure their econometric validity.Results – Results show that number of COVID-19 related cases and number of deaths have not had an impact on relative inward FDI on the world scale. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – Unlike most studies, this one exa-mines relative FDI host attractiveness from a global/holistic perspective, which provides additional analytical context. Such determinants as market size, access to qualified labour force and quality of governance are shown to trump risks associated with COVID-19 in determining FDI activity. Policymakers should focus on economic growth, access to qualified labour force and political stability. Hence, lockdown policies were not the optimum solution.
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