Impacts du développement des biocarburants sur la production française de grandes cultures.

The paper provides an analysis of the impacts of the bio fuel policy on the French arable crop subsector. The model used is a bio fuel supply model composed of an agricultural module and an industrial bio fuel processingule. Our results show that the incorporation target of 7% of bio fuels in transport fuels would lead to a considerable increase in the rapeseed area. In the main producing regions, the rapeseed area would reach approximately a third of the total farmed area. It would not be possible to reach a 10% incorporation target without imports. Furthermore, we analyse the impacts of reaching these production levels on the rapeseed opportunity costs, and show that reaching the incorporation targets will need an increase in rapeseed prices paid to farmers. We calculate the impacts of this opportunity cost increase on the competitiveness of bio fuels with respect to fossil oil, for different levels of oil prices.