区域基础上经常账户赤字与经济增长的关系:以土耳其为例

İlkay Gençer, Burcu KELEŞ BOZKURT, Letifşah Bozkurt, Feyyaz Zeren
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引用次数: 0

摘要

经常账户赤字对发展中国家和依赖外国的国家(如土耳其)来说总是非常重要的。在这个方向上,经常账户赤字与国内生产总值(GDP)之间的关系通过面板数据分析方法进行了检验,GDP用于代表土耳其2004-2020年期间的区域经济增长。根据协整检验的结果,确定了除黑海地区外,所有地区的经常账户赤字和GDP在长期内都是一起运动的。另一方面,从国内生产总值到经常账户赤字的单向因果关系已经确定了安纳托利亚中部和东南部地区,并且有可能做出评论,外国借款是首选,因为这些地区实现了经济增长。然而,对于黑海和马尔马拉地区,经常账户赤字与GDP之间存在单向因果关系。因此,得出的结论是,马尔马拉和黑海地区的经济增长可能依赖于经常帐户赤字。最后,可以理解的是,存在区域不同的经济结构,这导致了不同的结果。研究结果为决策者应根据区域特征做出决策提供了重要的指示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
THE RELATIONSHIP OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON REGIONAL BASIS: THE CASE OF TURKEY
Current account deficit is always of great importance in developing and foreign-dependent countries such as Turkey. In this direction, the relationship between the current account deficit and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is used to represent economic growth in Turkey for the period 2004-2020 on a regional basis, has been examined by panel data analysis methods. According to the results of the cointegration test, it has been determined that the current account deficit and GDP move together in the long run in all regions except the Black Sea Region. On the other hand, one-way causality from the GDP to the current account deficit has been determined for the Central and Southeastern Anatolia regions, and it is possible to make a comment that foreign borrowing is preferred as economic growth is achieved for these regions. However, for the Black Sea and Marmara regions, one-way causality was found from current account deficit to GDP. Accordingly, it has been concluded that there may be economic growth dependent on the current account deficit for the Marmara and Black Sea regions. Finally, it is understood that there are regionally different economic structures and this results in different findings. The findings provide important indications that policymakers should take decisions according to regional characteristics.
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