论偏离理性行为的前因后果

Dainis Zegners, U. Sunde, Anthony Strittmatter
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文提出了人类决策中普遍存在的偏离理性行为的新证据,以及相应的原因和后果。该分析基于国际象棋锦标赛的逐步数据和一种识别策略,该策略将专业国际象棋选手的行为与使用现代国际象棋引擎构建的理性行为基准进行比较。证据表明,人类玩家在几个不同的维度上偏离了理性基准。特别是,结果显示了与损失厌恶、时间压力、疲劳和认知限制有关的偏差。结果还表明,偏差并不一定导致更差的性能。与直觉和经验的重要影响一致,更快的决策与更频繁地偏离理性基准相关联,但它们也与更好的性能相关联。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the Causes and Consequences of Deviations from Rational Behavior
This paper presents novel evidence for the prevalence of deviations from rational behavior in human decision making - and for the corresponding causes and consequences. The analysis is based on move-by-move data from chess tournaments and an identification strategy that compares behavior of professional chess players to a rational behavioral benchmark that is constructed using modern chess engines. The evidence documents the existence of several distinct dimensions in which human players deviate from a rational benchmark. In particular, the results show deviations related to loss aversion, time pressure, fatigue, and cognitive limitations. The results also demonstrate that deviations do not necessarily lead to worse performance. Consistent with an important influence of intuition and experience, faster decisions are associated with more frequent deviations from the rational benchmark, yet they are also associated with better performance.
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