Mathematical model for predicting the vehicle occupancy for urban passenger transport on the route

This article discusses the issues of improving the quality of passenger service for urban passenger transport in major cities and megapolis. The analysis of various foreign and Russian sources of information relating to the comfort of transportation, show that it must be assessed by the level of occupancy on urban transport vehicles. The main content of the article is a description of the developed method for predicting the vehicle occupancy, which can be used to control and regulate level of the vehicle occupancy based on the established standard of quality of service. The method of forecasting is based on the use of actual data on the number boarding and alighting passengers at the stops of the route, formed by instrumental means. In order to assess the possibility of using analytical methods to predict the vehicle occupancy, four possible situations of passenger traffic on the route were identified and analyzed.