Examining the Decisions of Technology Adoption and Intensity Through Time: Evidence from Kenya

ABSTRACT:We examine the sequential adoption decisions and the intensity of adoption of maize hybrid seeds the by small-scale agricultural producers in Kenya. Previous adoption literature has investigated sequential adoption for cases that do not have significant uncertainty and lack of resources as is the case of developing countries like Kenya or for cross-pollinating crops like maize. This study contributes to the literature on the dynamics of adoption of hybrid maize in developing countries by focusing exclusively on the factors that affect farmers' decision to dis-adopt or increase the intensity of adoption, controlling for access to extension services as well as last rainfall from previous seasons. In order to capture the dynamic process of adoption, we use a four-year panel data survey of 441 randomly selected householders who grew maize in various agro-ecological zones in Kenya. Our analysis employs a broad range of methods, including logit, tobit and double hurdle models, to investigate the adoption decisions of smallholders and to identify the attributes that contribute to smallholder's changes of hybrid seed usage over time across different regions in Kenya. We find that easy access to market and improvements in extension services help smallholder farmers to adopt hybrid seeds while lack of credit restricts adoption. Previous experiences with adoption of other technologies (e.g. tractor or fertilizer use) indicate a strong inclination to adopt hybrid seeds. With respect to the sequential behavior of initial adopters we find that credit restrictions, distance to market and adequate rainfall in the previous season are the main barriers for initial adopters to maintain adoption status and increase the use of hybrid seeds. The findings are of policy interest, since they suggest input complementarity and indicate that constraints to continuous adoption are derived from both biophysical and market infrastructure constraints. Knowledge of whether first adopters increase their seed usage from year to year can inform on farmers' cropping strategies and help identify longer-term successful technologies that increase their income and alleviate poverty.