数字经济背景下乌兹别克斯坦金融发展和失业对贫困率的影响

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI:10.1145/3584202.3584306

Aziza Usmanova

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摘要

本文的目的是分析数字经济背景下乌兹别克斯坦金融发展指数和失业率对贫困率的影响。为实现这一目标，采用相关分析和向量自回归(VAR)模型对2000-2021年的数据进行了分析。研究发现，贫困与金融发展、贫困与失业率之间存在负相关关系。VAR模型表明，乌兹别克斯坦的贫困滞后导致了当前贫困水平的上升。研究发现，金融发展对贫困率没有影响。为了分析变量对贫困的个体影响，我们进行了格兰杰因果检验，结果表明贫困与失业率之间存在单向关系。据透露，贫困导致失业率下降。至于贫困与金融发展之间的关系，它具有双向性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT ON POVERTY RATE IN THE CONTEXT OF DIGITAL ECONOMY IN UZBEKISTAN

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of financial development index and unemployment rate on poverty rate in Uzbekistan in the context of digital economy. To reach this aim, data covering the period 2000-2021 years was analyzed using correlation analysis and applying Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. It was revealed that there is a negative association between poverty and financial development as well as poverty and unemployment rate. VAR model showed that in Uzbekistan lags of poverty serve to the increase of the current level of poverty. It was found that financial development does not affect the poverty rate. To analyze the individual effects of variables on poverty, the Granger causality test was conducted, which showed that there is a uni-directional relationship between poverty and unemployment rate. It was revealed that poverty causes the decrease in unemployment rate. As regards the relationship between poverty and financial development, it had a bi-directional character.

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Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems

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