Probabilistic Models for Static Adequacy and Security Assessment of a Local Area Electricity Supply System

The Canadian provincial interconnected system of concern in this paper forms a single integrated transmission network consisting of a number of investor owned and municipality own utilities serving the entire province. The utility of concern in this paper which owns and operates a portion of this system has traditionally relied on implicit deterministic criteria for evaluating system reliability performance and the need for system enhancements. Recently however, increasing emphasize has being placed on quantitative probabilistic assessments that attempt to quantify the risk of system disturbances, as well as the cost and the benefit of system enhancement projects. Probabilistic models for static adequacy and security of electricity supply system planning are presented in this paper. A case study is illustrated in which probabilistic static adequacy and security models are utilized to compute reliability indices for a local area electricity supply system supplied by a Canadian main provincial interconnected grid with and without system improvements.