去全球化如何影响经济增长?

Deniz Sevinc, Alp Polat, Tuba Sevi̇l, Guven Sevil
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当前,中美贸易战、欧盟解体、难民危机、新冠肺炎疫情等一系列因素阻碍了全球化进程。然而,类似的情况在过去也有过,比如殖民、大萧条和冷战。世界经历了全球化时期(全球化I、II和III)和去全球化时期(去全球化I和II)。关于当前十年是否正在经历去全球化及其影响的讨论一直存在。在此背景下,本研究旨在从各个维度调查2000-2019年期间34个经合组织国家的去全球化对经济增长的影响。面板数据分析表明,贸易和社会去全球化对经济增长有负向影响,而金融去全球化和社会去全球化的子维度对经济增长有正向影响。此外,研究还表明,政治全球化与经济增长之间的关系并不显著。这些发现有助于当前关于全球化现状及其对经济发展影响的辩论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Does Deglobalization Affect Economic Growth?
The current global landscape has been marked by a series of factors, such as the US-China trade war, disintegration in the European Union (EU), the refugee crisis, and the pandemic, which have impeded the process of globalization. However, similar situations have been experienced in the past, such as colonization, the Great Depression, and the Cold War. The world has experienced periods of globalization (Globalization I, II, and III) as well as periods of deglobalization (Deglobalization I and II). There have been discussions about whether the current decade is experiencing deglobalization and its effects. In this context, the present study aims to investigate the effects of deglobalization on economic growth in 34 OECD countries during the period 2000-2019, in various dimensions. Using panel data analysis, the results indicate that trade and social deglobalization have a negative impact on economic growth, while financial deglobalization and the subdimensions of social deglobalization have a positive influence on growth. Additionally, the study reveals that political globalization is not significantly associated with economic growth. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the current state of globalization and its effects on economic development.
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