21世纪的高尔迪结

Paweł Opala, Krzysztof Rybiński
{"title":"21世纪的高尔迪结","authors":"Paweł Opala, Krzysztof Rybiński","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1024826","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we identify four Gordian Knots of the global economy in the 21st century, that is 1) limits to growth: scarce energy and natural disasters, 2) aging of the developed world and the 21st century as the age of migration, 3) the rise of China and the failure of democracy, and 4) rising significance of global financial markets and emergence of new global players. We describe what policies are adopted at international and European level to deal with these Gordian knots and assess, when it can be done, what are the strengths and flaws of these polices. Finally we suggest \"outside-the-box\" Alexandrian solutions to some of these problems. We argue that while the natural resources constitute limits to growth in the medium run, the humanity ability to develop disruptive innovations will challenge those limits in the long run. We therefore call on the Club of Rome to broaden its discussion as what appeared as the main Gordian knot of the 21st century some 30 years ago should now be seen in a broader context. Europe has immense challenges and opportunities lying ahead. It is high time that the Club of Rome warns politicians which so diligently take Europe towards the dead end called global marginalization. Lack of strategic vision, national patriotism, protectionism, inability to see developing countries as legitimate global players. All these strategic weaknesses will strike back and will lead to weak Europe, unable to play an important global role in the 21st century. It is not to late avoid this gloomy scenario.","PeriodicalId":367470,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2007-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Gordian Knots of the 21st Century\",\"authors\":\"Paweł Opala, Krzysztof Rybiński\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.1024826\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper we identify four Gordian Knots of the global economy in the 21st century, that is 1) limits to growth: scarce energy and natural disasters, 2) aging of the developed world and the 21st century as the age of migration, 3) the rise of China and the failure of democracy, and 4) rising significance of global financial markets and emergence of new global players. We describe what policies are adopted at international and European level to deal with these Gordian knots and assess, when it can be done, what are the strengths and flaws of these polices. Finally we suggest \\\"outside-the-box\\\" Alexandrian solutions to some of these problems. We argue that while the natural resources constitute limits to growth in the medium run, the humanity ability to develop disruptive innovations will challenge those limits in the long run. We therefore call on the Club of Rome to broaden its discussion as what appeared as the main Gordian knot of the 21st century some 30 years ago should now be seen in a broader context. Europe has immense challenges and opportunities lying ahead. It is high time that the Club of Rome warns politicians which so diligently take Europe towards the dead end called global marginalization. Lack of strategic vision, national patriotism, protectionism, inability to see developing countries as legitimate global players. All these strategic weaknesses will strike back and will lead to weak Europe, unable to play an important global role in the 21st century. It is not to late avoid this gloomy scenario.\",\"PeriodicalId\":367470,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Political Economy (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"37 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2007-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Political Economy (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1024826\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Political Economy (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1024826","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4

摘要

在本文中,我们确定了21世纪全球经济的四个难题,即1)增长的限制:能源短缺和自然灾害;2)发达国家的老龄化和21世纪作为移民时代;3)中国的崛起和民主的失败;4)全球金融市场的重要性日益提高和新的全球参与者的出现。我们描述了在国际和欧洲层面上采取了哪些政策来处理这些棘手的问题,并评估了这些政策的优势和缺陷。最后,我们对其中一些问题提出了“开箱即用”的亚历山大式解决方案。我们认为,虽然自然资源在中期构成了增长的限制,但从长远来看,人类开发颠覆性创新的能力将挑战这些限制。因此,我们呼吁罗马俱乐部扩大其讨论,因为大约30年前出现的21世纪的主要死结现在应该在更广泛的背景下看待。欧洲面临着巨大的挑战和机遇。罗马俱乐部是时候警告那些孜孜不倦地把欧洲带向被称为全球边缘化的死胡同的政客们了。缺乏战略眼光,民族爱国主义,保护主义,无法将发展中国家视为合法的全球参与者。所有这些战略弱点都会反击,并将导致欧洲变得虚弱,无法在21世纪发挥重要的全球作用。现在避免这种悲观局面还为时不晚。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Gordian Knots of the 21st Century
In this paper we identify four Gordian Knots of the global economy in the 21st century, that is 1) limits to growth: scarce energy and natural disasters, 2) aging of the developed world and the 21st century as the age of migration, 3) the rise of China and the failure of democracy, and 4) rising significance of global financial markets and emergence of new global players. We describe what policies are adopted at international and European level to deal with these Gordian knots and assess, when it can be done, what are the strengths and flaws of these polices. Finally we suggest "outside-the-box" Alexandrian solutions to some of these problems. We argue that while the natural resources constitute limits to growth in the medium run, the humanity ability to develop disruptive innovations will challenge those limits in the long run. We therefore call on the Club of Rome to broaden its discussion as what appeared as the main Gordian knot of the 21st century some 30 years ago should now be seen in a broader context. Europe has immense challenges and opportunities lying ahead. It is high time that the Club of Rome warns politicians which so diligently take Europe towards the dead end called global marginalization. Lack of strategic vision, national patriotism, protectionism, inability to see developing countries as legitimate global players. All these strategic weaknesses will strike back and will lead to weak Europe, unable to play an important global role in the 21st century. It is not to late avoid this gloomy scenario.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信