考虑定性因素的首末段馈线模式选择行为分析

Jihye Kim
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引用次数: 2

摘要

“第一英里”和“最后一英里”的馈线模式最近引起了人们的关注。为了实施相应的政策,有必要了解馈线模式在第一英里和最后一英里的选择行为。因此,我们分析了在“第一英里”和“最后一英里”可引入的电动滑板车、自动公交车、共享单车和步行的出行方式选择行为。在模式选择行为上,定性因素和定量因素都有影响。因此,本研究量化了与自行车和电动滑板车相关的“感觉危险”和与步行相关的“关心健康”隐含的定性因素。采用以社会经济属性和个人偏好为自变量的二元logit模型对定性因子的取值进行估计,并采用以旅客社会经济属性、模式服务属性和定性因子为自变量的多项logit模型对模式选择模型进行校准。定性因素对出行者选择行为的影响被解释为单位旅行时间。对极短距离交通方式选择行为的标定分析表明,该模型具有显著的统计学意义。校正后的模型解释说,20多岁的人比其他年龄段的人更喜欢电动滑板车,而户主则倾向于避免走路。与骑自行车相比,骑电动滑板车的乘客更容易感到危险。在时间单位上,“感到危险”和“关心健康”对模式选择行为的影响在3.17 ~ 5.06分钟之间是相同的。当考虑到这是一个很短距离的移动时,结果表明“感觉危险”和“关心健康”这两个定性因素对出行者的模式选择行为影响很大。该研究有助于量化出行者在极短距离下的模式选择行为的定性因素。这使得用数字来表示定性因素的影响成为可能。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Choice Behavior Analysis for Feeder Modes on First and Last Mile with Qualitative Factors
Feeder modes on First and Last Mile recently have been getting attention. To carry out relevant policies, it is necessary to understand the choice behavior about feeder modes on first and last mile. Therefore we analyzed traveler’s mode choice behavior about electric scooter, autonomous bus, sharing bicycle and walking which can be introduced on First and Last Mile. On the mode choice behavior, the qualitative factors have influence as well as the quantitative factors. Therefore, this study quantified the qualitative factors which were implied “feeling danger” related to bicycle and electric scooter, and “concerning health” related to walking. The values of qualitative factor were estimated by using a binary logit model with socio-economic attributes and personal preference as independent variables, and the mode choice models were calibrated in the form of a multinomial logit model with traveler’s socio-economic attributes, mode service attributes, and qualitative factor as independent variables. The influence of the qualitative factors on traveler’s choice behavior was interpreted as unit of travel time. And the calibration analysis of transportation mode choice behavior at very short distances showed that the model is statistically significant. The calibrated model explained that the people in age 20s preferred to electric scooters comparing with other age groups and that houseperson tended to avoid walking. The passengers tended to feel danger to electric scooter more than bicycle. The effect of “feeling danger” and “concerning health” on the mode choice behavior in time unit, their effect was found as same as between 3.17 and 5.06 minutes. When considering that it is a very short-distance moving, the results showed that the qualitative factors of “feeling danger” and “concerning health” affect greatly on the traveler’s mode choice behavior. The study contributed to quantifying the qualitative factors for traveler’s mode choice behavior at very short distances. This made it possible to express the influence of qualitative factors numerically.
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