消防站之间距离的优化:着火概率、消防车速度和道路限制、财产价值和天气条件的影响

P. Lohmander
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引用次数: 0

摘要

解决了一般空间消防队单位网络密度优化问题。从消防站到特定道路的距离近似为连续变量。通过积分卷积证明了总行程时间的概率密度函数PDFT是三角形的。当火灾停止时,火灾的规模是消防队到达火灾地点所需时间的函数。基于每个消防站的成本、PDFT、指数火灾成本函数参数、消防站之间的距离和消防车的速度,导出了每平方公里预期总成本的显式连续函数。证明了使总期望成本最小的消防队单位位置之间的最优距离OFD是唯一的。然后,根据不同的参数假设,将ofd替换为整数ofdi。在此过程中,还确定了最优期望总成本。证明了OFD是单位面积期望火灾数的严格递减函数,是消防车速度的严格递增函数,是指数火灾代价函数参数的严格递减函数,是每个消防站代价的严格递增函数。这些参数变化的影响也在数值部分通过图表加以说明。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Optimization of distance between fire stations: effects of fire ignition probabilities, fire engine speed and road limitations, property values and weather conditions
A general spatial fire brigade unit network density optimization problem has been solved. The distance to a particular road, from a fire station, is approximated as a continuous variable. It is proved, via integral convolution, that the probability density function of the total travel time, PDFT, is triangular. The size of the fire, when it stopped, is a function of the time it takes until the fire brigade reaches the fire location. An explicit continuous function for the expected total cost per square kilometer, based on the cost per fire station, the PDFT, the exponential fire cost function parameters, the distance between fire stations, and the speed of fire engines, is derived. It is proved that the optimal distance between fire brigade unit positions, OFD, which minimizes the total expected cost, is unique. Then, the OFDs are replaced by integers, OFDIs, for different parameter assumptions. In this process, also the optimal expected total costs are determined. It is proved that the OFD is a strictly decreasing function of the expected number of fires per area unit, a strictly increasing function of the speed of the fire engines, a strictly decreasing function of the parameters of the exponential fire cost function, and a strictly increasing function of the cost per fire station. These effects of parameter changes are also illustrated via graphs in the numerical section.
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