用于汇率预测的高阶模糊时间序列

L. Abdullah, I. Taib
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引用次数: 7

摘要

模糊时间序列模型已被许多研究者用于各种预测活动,如大学招生、温度、直接税征收和最流行的股票价格预测。然而,利用高阶模糊时间序列的汇率预测在商业交易中有着巨大的贡献,却很少受到重视。本文旨在利用高阶模糊时间序列对美元对马来西亚林吉特汇率的预测进行检验,并检验其准确性。对25组美元兑马来西亚林吉特汇率数据进行了七步高模糊时间序列检验。结果表明,高阶模糊时间序列产生的误差很小,因此该模型确实是一个很好的汇率预测工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
High order fuzzy time series for exchange rates forecasting
Fuzzy time series model has been employed by many researchers in various forecasting activities such as university enrolment, temperature, direct tax collection and the most popular stock price forecasting. However exchange rate forecasting especially using high order fuzzy time series has been given less attention despite its huge contribution in business transactions. The paper aims to test the forecasting of US dollar (USD) against Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rates using high order fuzzy time series and check its accuracy. Twenty five data set of the exchange rates USD against MYR was tested to the seven-step of high fuzzy time series. The results show that higher order fuzzy time series yield very small errors thereby the model does produce a good forecasting tool for the exchange rates.
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