Expert Assessment of Negative Manifestations that Cause Ethnic and National Conflicts in Modern Russia

The article deals with the problems of modern ethnic conflict manifestations, which, if ethnic tension increases in Russian society, may pose a threat to Russia’s national security. The survey conducted by the author of the article (using the methods of questionnaires and in–depth interviews) of twenty experts who are highly qualified specialists in the field of countering ethnoextremism, the results of mass sociological research, analysis of scientific papers and media publications on the research topic allowed us to determine the probability of various negative manifestations that cause the emergence and development of ethno-national conflicts in the next five to seven years. The most likely negative manifestations (the maximum expert rating is “5”) are the actions of Islamist extremism, including terrorism. The main danger is the terrorist activities of the international organization “Islamic state” and its affiliated extremist structures. Experts believe that ethnoextremistic actions are quite likely (rating “3”): local population towards non-cultural migrants from the North Caucasus republics; local population towards migrants from Central Asian States and towards Russians in the national republics of Russia; local population towards the Federal government and regional authorities; as well as due to the increased influx of migrants from China towards migrants from Ukraine. Experts consider negative manifestations of regional elites towards the Federal government, local population towards Russian citizens in foreign countries, as well as manifestations of Russian nationalism and anti-Semitism to be the least likely (rating “2”). The results of scientific research presented in this article demonstrate the importance of studying the problem of negative ethnic and national manifestations, determining the degree of their influence on the content and dynamics of possible conflicts, and developing effective measures for their timely prevention and suppression.