索马里摩加迪沙巴纳迪尔地区巴贾杰司机道路交通事故影响因素实证研究

Hassan Mohamed Osman, Ibrahim Abdi Hassan, Abdirashid Mohamed Kasim, Omar Abdulle Omar
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摘要

这项研究的目的是调查摩加迪沙Moto Bajaj司机的年龄对道路事故的影响。研究目标包括:确定超过城市驾驶限制的驾驶员比例,确定驾驶员年龄与事故的关系,确定驾驶速度与道路事故的关系,确定符合法定驾驶条件的驾驶员比例。对巴贾吉司机进行了结构化问卷调查,并从巴贾吉司机的来源人群中收集了385份记录。它是通过对巴纳迪尔地区385名巴贾吉司机的实地调查进行的。在人群来源未知的情况下确定样本量,较大样本量的确定采用Cochrane(1977)公式计算理想样本量。本研究是一项描述性横断面研究,于2022年1月至5月进行。主题是摩加迪沙摩加迪沙Moto Bajaj司机年龄对交通事故的影响。研究发现,首选的驾驶速度;喜欢驾驶30 - 49公里/小时的司机占47%,喜欢驾驶50 - 69公里/小时的司机占52%,喜欢驾驶>70公里/小时的司机占1%。这表明53%的巴哈车手有潜力以更高的速度驾驶。研究显示,与低速驾驶相比,司机喜欢50-69公里/小时的速度发生事故的可能性要高出19.116倍。喜欢车速为70公里/小时的司机发生事故的可能性是其他司机的18倍。该模型在没有发生事故的情况下正确预测了86.2%,在发生事故的情况下正确预测了85.9%,总体正确预测率为86%。该研究建议并倡导所有相关机构,包括政府机构、组织、私营机构和决策者,实施并积极参与道路安全政策和程序,包括在巴纳迪尔地区某些道路上限制驾驶年龄和速度。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Research on Factors Contributing Road Accident Among Bajaj Drivers in Banadir Region, Mogadishu, Somalia
This study was aimed at investigating the effects of driver’s age on road accidents among Moto Bajaj drivers in Mogadishu. The study objectives include; identifying the proportion of driver exceeding the urban driving limit, determining the relationship between driver age and accidents, determining the relationship between speed of driving and road accident, and determining the proportion of drivers who meets the legal requirements for driving. Structured questionnaires were administered to Bajaj drivers and collected 385 records from the source population of Bajaj drivers. It was conducted through a field survey of 385 Bajaj drivers in the Banadir region. The source of the population was unknown to determine the sample size, Cochrane (1977) formula was used for larger sample size determination to calculate the ideal sample size. This study was a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted from Jan to May 2022. The topic was the effects of Moto Bajaj driver’s age on road accidents in Mogadishu, Somalia. The study found that preferred driving speed; drivers who prefer to drive between 30 - 49 Km per hour accounted for 47%, drivers who preferred to drive 50 - 69 Km per hour accounted for 52%, and those who prefer to drive >70 Km per hour accounted 1%. This indicates that 53% of the Baja drivers are the potential to drive at higher speeds. The study revealed the odds for driver’s preferred speed of 50-69 km/hr were 19.116 times more likely to have an accident comparing those driving at low speed. And drivers preferring a speed of 70 km/hr are 18 times more likely to have an accident compared to others. The model correctly predicted 86.2% of cases where there was no accident and 85.9% of cases where there was an accident giving an overall percentage correct prediction rate of 86. The study recommends and provides advocacy to all concerned bodies, including the government institutions, organizations, private institutions, and decisions maker, to impose and actively engage the road safety policy and procedures, including driving age and speed limiting on certain roads in Banadir Region.  
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