中国居民储蓄率与房价——基于队列分析

Liang Miao, Zhu Zhengxuan
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摘要

本文基于队列分析的视角,以家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)为样本,考察了中国房价与家庭储蓄率之间的实证关系。我们发现,房价上涨会导致家庭储蓄率下降,房价每变化1个单位,家庭储蓄率会下降2.2个单位,稳健检验支持我们的结论。储蓄率的年龄曲线表明,老年队列的储蓄率低于年轻队列,这符合生命周期理论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Household savings rates and housing prices in China—Based on cohort analysis
Based on the perspective of cohort analysis, this paper examines the empirical relationship between housing prices and household savings rates in China by using family tracking survey data (CFPS) as sample. We find that the appreciation of housing prices can lead to household savings rates to decline, and changes in housing prices by 1 unit produce decreases in household savings rates by 2.2 units, the robust tests support our conclusions. The age curve of savings rates shows that the savings rates of the elder cohort is lower than that of the younger cohort, which is in accordance with life-cycle theory.
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