Generation expansion planning under uncertainty considering power-to-gas technology

In the course of ambitious climate targets, the European electrical power system is subject to an upcoming shift from fossil-fueled to renewable power generation. As a consequence, it remains vague which expansions involve the least-cost transformation path while satisfying security of supply as well as providing sufficient flexibility to handle an increasing share of intermittent feed-in. Hence, this paper presents the stochastic generation expansion planning method ‘ZEUS’ which optimizes investment decisions under uncertainty. Exemplary simulations show that in a power system shaped by renewables an expansion of 7 GW Power-to-Gas technology in Germany appears to be economically efficient. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that the emerging development path significantly changes when relevant uncertainties are explicitly anticipated in the planning process.