使用PERT方法分析软件项目完成时间

Gentisya Tri Mardiani
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在建设项目软件上计划进度通常是基于以前项目的经验,因此在确定工作的持续时间时,只使用一个估计,或者每个工作的持续时间已由公司的项目经理或项目团队直接设置。这就导致在建设项目的时候,出现进度不足的问题,项目经理不知道项目是否可以继续按计划运行的可能性。此外,估算工期的确定方法之一与软件的特点不相适应,因为在建设项目软件中项目的完成时间还存在不确定性。估算工期值在使用上的弱点是当出现不能确定地预测工期长度的问题时,导致已经设定的工期为以后用工而应回调,造成项目过晚。基于需要分析的问题,利用项目评估与评审技术(PERT)的方法确定项目的完成概率,该方法采用了乐观工期、最可能工期和悲观工期三种估计方法。这样就可以知道项目的预期完成时间,项目经理可以对项目的进度进行规划。研究结果表明,当项目经理已经知道建设项目进度关键期的持续时间时,可以计算项目完成的概率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analisis Estimasi Waktu Penyelesaian Proyek Perangkat Lunak Menggunakan Metode PERT
Planning the schedule on the construction project software in general is based on experience from a previous project, so that in determining the duration of work using only one of the estimate, or the duration for every job has been set directly by the Project Manager or Project Team in the company. This resulted in when the construction project, when there was the problem of lack of progress, Project Manager of not knowing the possibility of whether the project can continue to run as planned or not. In addition, the determination of one of the estimate for the duration of work not suitable with the characteristics of the software, because in the construction project software there is still uncertainty in the time the completion of projects. The weakness in the use of the value of the estimated duration of is when there are problems that can not be predicted with certainty the length of it, resulting in the duration of work has been set for later employment should be set back, causing projects to be too late. Based on the problem needed an analysis to determine the probability of the completion of projects using the method of program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), this method employs three estimates of the duration of the duration of optimistic, the duration of the most likely and the duration of the pessimistic. It is expected to know the time the completion of projects, Project Manager can do the planning of the scheduling of the project. The result of this study shows that the probabilities of the completion of projects can be counted when Project Manager already know the duration of the critical of the schedule the construction project.
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