为应对大流行病期间国际贸易的动态变化,改变本区域的部门结构

S. Vasin, L. Gamidullaeva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:确定区域产业结构动态模式,以应对因2019冠状病毒病大流行的突然影响而发生的区域进出口业务性质和数量变化。方法:采用一般科学方法:监测2019冠状病毒病大流行期间社会经济系统变化的方法;描述方法,包括用于收集和呈现数据的系统;在流行病学因素的影响下,识别和研究社会经济体制转型过程各阶段的分析方法。此外,还采用了特殊的数据分组、收集和经济统计分析方法、计算结构转移的盖特系数法等。结果:首先,确定大流行期间最稳定的部门结构是双边经济开放度高(出口和进口配额都很高)的国家。在该组的大多数主题中,在大流行的第一年和第二年,部门结构都略有变化。第二,进口水平较高的国家在大流行期间部门结构更加稳定:尽管部门结构的动态程度较高,但多年来的差异并不大。第三,研究发现,进口配额水平低的国家,无论出口配额水平如何,都是大流行期间最不稳定的部门结构:这些国家的部门结构发生了重大变化。结论及相关性:要提高区域经济对不可预测冲击的抵御能力,就必须扩大与国际贸易长期增长的出口联系,沿着区域优势的路线加强和稳定与国外组织的现有贸易关系,还必须加强区域生产在国内消费中的地位。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Transformations of the sectoral structure of the region as a response to the dynamics of international trade during the pandemic
Purpose: is to identify patterns in the regional industrial structure dynamics in response to the changing nature and volume of the region's export-import operations due to the sudden impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: general scientific methods were used: the method of monitoring changes in the socio-economic system during the COVID-19 pandemic; the description method, including a system for collecting and presenting data; the analysis method for identifying and studying stages of the process of socio-economic system transformation in the context of their changes under the influence of epidemiological factors. In addition, special methods of grouping, collecting and economic-statistical analysis of data, Gatev coefficient method for calculating structural shifts, and others are used.Results: firstly, it was determined that the most stable sectoral structure during the pandemic was presented by subjects with a high bilateral economic openness (a high level of both export and import quotas). In most of the subjects of the group, the sectoral structure changed slightly both in the first and in the second year of the pandemic. Secondly, subjects with a higher level of imports were characterized by greater stability of the sectoral structure during the pandemic: despite the higher level of dynamics of the sectoral structure, the differences over the years are not high. Thirdly, it was found that the subjects with a low level of import quotas, regardless of the level of export quotas, were the least stable sectoral structure during the pandemic: the sectoral structure of the subjects was significantly transformed.Conclusions and Relevance: to increase the resilience of the regional economy to unpredictable shocks, it is necessary to expand exportimport contacts with a long-term increase in international trade, strengthen and stabilize existing trade relations with foreign organizations along the lines of regional strengths, and it is also necessary to strengthen the position of regional production in domestic consumption.
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