Environmental Regulation, Technological Progress and Carbon Emission Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Chinese Provinces

China faces the key issue of improving the efficiency of carbon emissions, in its endeavor of building a low-carbon economy and reducing carbon emissions. This paper adopts the super-slack-based measure (SBM) model with a bad output to measure the carbon emission efficiency of each Chinese province from 2000 to 2019, and further uses the Tobit model to analyze the impact of environmental regulation, technological progress, and the interaction between the two on carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: China's carbon emission efficiency presents a large inter-provincial difference. Only a few provinces like Shanghai and Beijing reached the efficient frontier, while all the other provinces failed to do so. Overall, most Chinese provinces have a huge potential for improving carbon emission efficiency. By dividing China into three regions, it could be seen that the eastern region had the highest carbon emission efficiency, followed in turn by the central region and the western region. According to the spatiotemporal variation of carbon emission efficiency, most provinces with a high carbon emission efficiency belong to the economically developed eastern region, while most central and western provinces did not realize satisfactory carbon emission efficiency. With the elapse of time, the carbon emission efficiency in most provinces declined to varied degrees, while that of a few provinces was on the rise. The results of the Tobit model show that both environmental regulation and technological progress both significantly promoted carbon emission efficiency, but their cross term clearly suppressed carbon emission efficiency. When it comes to the control variables, carbon emission efficiency has a significantly positive relationship with opening-up, and a significantly negative relationship with industrial structure, financial development, energy structure, and urbanization level.