多变量混沌时间序列的相空间重构与预测

Chuntao Zhang, Jiao Guo, Qianli Ma, Hong Peng, Xiao-Dong Zhang
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引用次数: 2

摘要

为了获得多变量时间序列预测的有效输入向量,在重构相空间中提出了联合熵定维法(JEDD)。针对多变量混沌时间序列,首先利用互信息法确定各变量的延迟时间,然后提出利用联合熵确定相空间嵌入维数的算法。该算法根据最大熵原理选择重构分量,不断扩展相空间,使重构分量的信息量与系统信息量相当,消除了相空间的冗余性。数值实验表明,JEDD在重构相空间中的神经网络预测效果明显优于单变量时间序列预测和现有的多变量预测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Phase space reconstruction and prediction of multivariate chaotic time series
In order to obtain the effective input vector for the prediction of multivariate time series, method of joint entropy determine the dimension(JEDD) is proposed in the reconstructed phase space. For multivariate chaotic time series, Firstly, determine the delay time of each variate with mutual information method, and then propose the algorithm that determines the embedding dimension of phase space by the joint entropy. The algorithm could choose the reconstructed components based on the maximum entropy principle, continuously expand phase space to make the amount of the information of reconstructed components as much as the system, which could eliminate the redundancy of phase space. The numerical experiments show that the neutral network prediction in the reconstructed phase space by JEDD is much better than univariate time series prediction and existing multiple variable predictions.
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