越南-欧亚经济联盟自由贸易协定对越南与欧亚经济联盟贸易的影响

Quynh Bui, T. C. Ha
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引用次数: 0

摘要

-本研究采用贸易结构重力模型,考察越南-欧亚经济联盟自由贸易协定(FTA Vietnam - EAEU)对协定前后越南与成员国之间进出口的影响。该模型在2001 - 2019年的行业层面面板数据样本上进行了测试,作者估计固定效应模型(FEM)在全国范围内-与观测数配对获得的观测数为5386个,形成重复样本,不平衡。伪泊松极大似然估计(PPML)也被用于解决零贸易问题和异方差的存在。结果表明,协定带来了“贸易创造”,进出口营业额较协定前有所增加。双方应加大比较优势产品的生产和出口力度,在不影响竞争和优势互补的前提下,从协定中获取优惠待遇。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of the Vietnam - EAEU FTA on the trade between Vietnam and Eurasian Economic Union
— This study uses a structural gravity model of trade to examine the impact of the Vietnam - Eurasian Economic Union free trade agreement (FTA Vietnam - EAEU) on exports and imports between Vietnam and its member countries before and after the agreement. The model is tested on a sample of in-dustry-level panel data from 2001 to 2019, the author estimates the fixed-effects model (FEM) in the country - paired with the number of observations obtained is 5,386 observations forming a repeat sample, unbalanced. The paper also performs Pseudo Poisson maximum likelihood estimation (PPML) is also applied to solve the zero trade issue and the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that the agreement leads to "trade creation", import and export turnover increases compared to before the agreement. The authors propose that the two sides need to boost to produce and export the comparative advantage products in order to seize preferential treatment from the agreement without affecting competition and complementing each other.
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